Survey Of Professional Forecasters
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The Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) is a quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts for the
economy of the United States The United States is a highly developed mixed-market economy and has the world's largest nominal GDP and net wealth. It has the second-largest by purchasing power parity (PPP) behind China. It has the world's seventh-highest List of countr ...
issued by the
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia — also known as the Philadelphia Fed or the Philly Fed — headquartered at 10 Independence Mall in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, is responsible for the Third District of the Federal Reserve, which covers ...
. It is the oldest such survey in the United States. The survey includes an "anxious index" that estimates the probability of a decline in real GDP.


History

The survey began in 1968 and was conducted by the
American Statistical Association The American Statistical Association (ASA) is the main professional organization for statisticians and related professionals in the United States. It was founded in Boston, Massachusetts on November 27, 1839, and is the second oldest continuousl ...
(ASA) and the
National Bureau of Economic Research The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is an American private nonprofit research organization "committed to undertaking and disseminating unbiased economic research among public policymakers, business professionals, and the academic c ...
(NBER). The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia took over the survey in 1990. In its early days (prior to the takeover by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia) the survey was often referred to in the academic literature as the ASA-NBER survey. In May 2008, it was announced that SPF would be adding an industry classification variable for its survey respondents, so that researchers could more easily determine how people's forecasts related to the industry they were from.


Variables

The Survey of Professional Forecasters includes variables in the following broad categories: * U.S. business indicators *
Real GDP Real gross domestic product (real GDP) is a macroeconomic measure of the value of economic output adjusted for price changes (i.e. inflation or deflation). This adjustment transforms the money-value measure, nominal GDP, into an index for quantity ...
and its components * CPI and PCE inflation * Long-term inflation forecasts * Additional long-term forecasts * Equilibrium unemployment * Probability on ranges (for GDP, inflation, and unemployment measures) * Anxious Index * Implied forecasts


Reception

SPF has been used in academic research on forecast accuracy and forecast bias. A 1997 analysis of density forecasts of inflation made in the SPF finds: "The probability of a large negative inflation shock is generally overestimated, and in more recent years the probability of a large shock of either sign is overestimated. Inflation surprises are serially correlated, although agents eventually adapt. Expectations of low inflation are associated with reduced uncertainty. The results suggest several promising directions for future research." SPF keeps a record of the bias and error in its own past forecasts online. Their forecasting track record and the implications of their forecasts have been discussed on business press and blogs, including ''
Forbes ''Forbes'' () is an American business magazine owned by Integrated Whale Media Investments and the Forbes family. Published eight times a year, it features articles on finance, industry, investing, and marketing topics. ''Forbes'' also r ...
'' and the ''
Wall Street Journal ''The Wall Street Journal'' is an American business-focused, international daily newspaper based in New York City, with international editions also available in Chinese and Japanese. The ''Journal'', along with its Asian editions, is published ...
''.


See also

*
Economic forecasting Economic forecasting is the process of making predictions about the economy. Forecasts can be carried out at a high level of aggregation—for example for GDP, inflation, unemployment or the fiscal deficit—or at a more disaggregated level, for ...
*
Greenbook The Greenbook of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors (called the Greenbook for short) is a book with projections of various economic indicators for the economy of the United States produced by the Federal Reserve Board before each meeting of t ...
: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia makes available the Greenbook projections data set in
Microsoft Excel Microsoft Excel is a spreadsheet developed by Microsoft for Microsoft Windows, Windows, macOS, Android (operating system), Android and iOS. It features calculation or computation capabilities, graphing tools, pivot tables, and a macro (comp ...
format. This includes only four quarterly Greenbook projections in order to maximize the correspondence and comparability with the Survey of Professional Forecasters. *
ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters, simply called the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), is a quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts for the economy of Europe issued by the European Central Bank (ECB). History The ECB Survey ...
, a similar survey conducted by the
European Central Bank The European Central Bank (ECB) is the prime component of the monetary Eurosystem and the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) as well as one of seven institutions of the European Union. It is one of the world's most important centra ...
starting 1999. *
Blue Chip Economic Indicators Blue Chip Economic Indicators is a monthly survey and associated publication by Wolters Kluwer collecting macroeconomic forecasts related to the economy of the United States. The survey polls America's top business economists, collecting their f ...
* Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast *
Consensus Economics Consensus Economics is a global macroeconomic survey firm that polls more than 700 economists monthly for their forecasts for over 2000 macroeconomic indicators in 115 countries. The company is headquartered in London, United Kingdom. History C ...
: Surveys of US and International Economic Forecasts *
Livingston Survey The Livingston Survey is a biannual survey (conducted in June and December of every year) about the economy of the United States conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Begun in 1946, it is the longest continuous record of economists ...


References


External links

* {{official website, http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/real-time-center/survey-of-professional-forecasters/ Economy of the United States Economic forecasting